The Thomson Reuters annual forecast found a significant increase in the number of blockbusters set to enter this year's market. The Intellectual Property and Science Business of Thomson Reuters Annual Forecast found a significant increase in the number of blockbusters set to enter this year's market.
The study revealed a significant increase in the number of expected blockbusters from three drugs in 2014 to eleven in 2015. Three of the new drugs are expected to reach over $3 billion in sales by 2019. Thomson Reuters analysts utilized Cortellis™ Competitive Intelligence, its source for drug pipeline, deals, patents, and company content, to forecast the new-to-market drugs expected to lead the pack in sales and potentially emerge as blockbusters (earning $ 1 billion+) by 2019.
At the beginning of 2014, Thomson Reuters Cortellis Competitive Intelligence named three drugs expected to enter the market that year and achieve sales of over $1 billion within five years. All are still forecast to be $1 billion-plus blockbusters, according to the 2015 report. They are Gilead Sciences' oral drug Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, GlaxoSmithKline/Theravance's Anoro Ellipta (umeclidinium plus vilanterol) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and Gilead was Zydelig (idelalisib) for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and indolent non-Hodgkin's lymphomas such as follicular B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (FL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).
In its 2015 report Thomson Reuters predicts that three drugs will exceed $3 billion in sales by 2019: Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMS) melanoma drug Opdivo (nivolumab); Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi's Praluent (alirocumab) for hypercholesterolemia and Novartis' LCZ-696 (sacubitril and valsartan) for chronic heart failure. Thomson Reuters also predicts other "blockbuster" drug entrants: Pfizer's Ibrance (palbociclib) for breast cancer; Vertex Pharmaceutical's lumacaftor plus ivacaftor for cystic fibrosis; AbbVie's Viekira Pak (veruprevir, ritonavir, ombitasvir and dasabuvir) for HCV; Amgen and Astellas Pharma's evolocumab for hypercholesterolemia/hyperlipidemia; Merck & Co.'s Gardasil 9 vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection; Otsuka Pharmaceutical and Lundbeck's brexpiprazole for schizophrenia and depression; Sanofi's Toujeo (new-formulation insulin glargine) for diabetes; and Novartis' Cosentyx (secukinumab) for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis.
The report goes on to say, "Key trends to watch in 2015 are the rise of immuno-oncology approaches for treating cancer, the race to be the next big cholesterol drug, the entry of a first-in-class heart failure drug, and the entry of more convenient all-oral regimes for HCV. Opdivo versus Keytruda is the race to watch in the immuno-oncology space, while Praluent and evolocumab battle it out in the cholesterol field, LCZ-696 aims to make its mark for heart failure, and Gilead, AbbVie and Merck compete to win space in the HCV market." It concludes that far more blockbusters will enter the market this year than in 2014.
