How soon will the Arctic summer months experience an ice-free environment, meaning no frozen seawater will exist in the Arctic? This is what a recent study published in Nature Communications hopes to address as a pair of international researchers investigated how the first ice-free summer day in the Arctic could occur as soon as 2027, which contrasts longstanding notions that such an event wouldn’t occur for decades. This study holds the potential to help researchers, climate scientists, and the public better understand both the short- and long-term ramifications of climate change and the steps that can be taken to mitigate them.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically,” said Dr. Alexandra Jahn, who is an associate professor of atmospheric and ocean sciences at CU Boulder and co-author of the study. “But it will show that we've fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions.”
For the study, the researchers used the climate modeling software, Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) to estimate when the first ice-free day in the Arctic will occur which builds on a 2023 model that estimated the first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t occur until 2100. After conducting nine simulations with CMIP6, the researchers discovered that the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur as soon as 2027, resulting from increased temperatures during the winter and spring months.
“Because the first ice-free day is likely to happen earlier than the first ice-free month, we want to be prepared. It’s also important to know what events could lead to the melting of all sea ice in the Arctic Ocean,” said Dr. Céline Heuzé, who is a senior lecturer at the University of Gothenburg and lead author of the study.
The researchers noted events have already occurred that could result in this ice-free Arctic day, specifically in March 2022 when Arctic regions experienced temperatures of 50 degrees Fahrenheit above the average, which they anticipate could worsen with the effects of climate change.
What new discoveries about an ice-free Arctic will researchers make in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: Nature Communications, EurekAlert!
Featured Image Credit: Céline Heuzé/University of Gothenburg